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Back in 2018, it took just eight words to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis in UK politics, the cap that has been kept tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass long-standing Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention to Britain, found on a proposal that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is among a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Risk & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.