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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."