The Jim Gavin Exits from Irish Election Campaign
In a surprising turn of events, one of the main contenders in Ireland's election for president has left the race, upending the election dynamics.
Withdrawal Announcement Shakes Up Campaign Landscape
The party's Jim Gavin pulled out on the evening of Sunday following revelations about an financial obligation to a past renter, turning the race into an uncertain head-to-head battle between a center-right ex-minister and an autonomous progressive member of parliament.
The 54-year-old Gavin, a newcomer to politics who joined the election after careers in sport, aviation and the military, withdrew after it emerged he had failed to return a rent overpayment of €3,300 when he was a lessor about a decade and a half ago, during a period of economic hardship.
"I committed an error that was contrary to who I am and the principles I uphold. Corrective actions are underway," he said. "After careful consideration, about the potential impact of the ongoing campaign on the wellbeing of my family and friends.
"After evaluating everything, I've chosen to exit from the campaign for president with right away and go back to my family."
Contest Reduced to Two Main Contenders
A major surprise in a election race in living memory reduced the field to one candidate, a ex-minister who is running for the governing moderate right party Fine Gael, and Catherine Connolly, an outspoken advocate for Palestine who is endorsed by a political party and minor progressive groups.
Problem for Leader
The withdrawal also caused a problem for the prime minister and party head, Micheál Martin, who had risked his standing by selecting an inexperienced hopeful over the skepticism of fellow members.
The leader stated it was about not wanting to "cause dispute" to the presidency and was right to withdraw. "Gavin recognized that he made an error in relation to an issue that has emerged recently."
Campaign Struggles
Although known for competence and success in enterprise and sports – under his leadership Dublin's Gaelic football team to five straight titles – his campaign had stumbled through blunders that put him at a disadvantage in an opinion poll even ahead of the debt news.
Individuals within Fianna Fáil who had objected to picking the candidate said the situation was a "significant mistake" that would have "consequences" – a implied threat to the leader.
Ballot Process
The candidate's name may stay on the voting paper in the poll taking place in late October, which will finish the long service of President Higgins, but people must choose between a binary choice between a traditional center candidate and an non-aligned left-leaning candidate. Survey results prior to his departure gave Connolly 32% support and Humphreys nearly a quarter, with Gavin on 15%.
Under electoral rules, voters select contenders based on preference. If no candidate exceeds 50% on the first count, the contender receiving the lowest initial choices is removed and their support is passed to the subsequent choice.
Potential Vote Transfers
Analysts predicted that should Gavin be removed, most of his votes would shift to the other candidate, and the other way around, increasing the likelihood that a establishment hopeful would attain the presidency for the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition.
Presidential Duties
The presidency is a primarily ceremonial position but Higgins and his predecessors turned it into a platform on global issues.
Remaining Candidates
The 68-year-old Connolly, from her home city, would add a firm left-leaning stance to that tradition. She has assailed capitalist systems and stated Hamas is "part of the fabric" of the people of Palestine. Connolly has alleged NATO of promoting military solutions and equated Germany's increased defence spending to the thirties, when Germany underwent rearmament.
Humphreys, 62, has encountered examination over her record as a minister in administrations that managed a accommodation problem. Being a member of that faith from the northern county, she has also been faulted for her failure to speak Gaelic but said her faith tradition could help win over loyalists in the North in a combined country.
